Contours of the Possible: Global Scenarios and Great Transitions*

The premise of this paper is that civilization is in the midst of a fundamental historical transformation whose outcome remains profoundly uncertain. Some form of planetary society will crystallize over the coming decades as a result of interacting global factors – economic globalization, cultural influence, information technology, geopolitical and social fissures, and alterations of critical biogeochemical cycles. But depending on how conflicts are resolved, global development can branch into dramatically different pathways. Possible scenarios include Market Forces, where social and environmental concerns remain secondary, Fortress World, with elites in protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside, and Policy Reform, with strong governmental interventionist for social and environmental goals. All are problematic: Market Forces would risk socio-ecological crisis, Fortress World would signal the failure of inclusive global development, and Policy Reform would need to overcome great technological and political hurdles to deliver change at the required pace and scale. Great Transition scenarios envision the emergence of a new global development paradigm that would challenge both the viability and desirability of conventional values, economic structures and social arrangements. It would be rooted in the values that emphasize quality of life, human dignity, affinity with nature, and global solidarity. A Great Transition would involve multiple and synergistic sub-transformations in values, institutions, and technology. Various social agents would need to act in concert to drive such a transition, including global actors such as intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations, and civil society. This shift would seem to require the emergence of a strong global polity of citizens engaged in a common project for new planetary compact based on pluralism, tolerance and global identification. To crystallize such a movement, the discourse on global sustainability and development would need to transcend the advocacy of better technologies, poverty alleviation, and incremental adjustments to market-driven development. It would need to bring the questions of human values, lifestyles, and institutions to the forefront of debate and action, and offer a positive vision of a civilized form of globalization for the whole human family. Historical Transitions Transitions are ubiquitous in nature. Many biophysical systems evolve gradually within a given state or organization, then enter a period of relatively rapid transformation that can be chaotic and turbulent, and finally emerge in a new state with qualitatively different features. This broad pattern is found across the spectrum of natural phenomena: the forging of matter in the instant after the big bang, the phase shifts between different states of matter as temperature and pressure change, the epigenesis of individual biological creatures, and the evolution of life’s diverse forms. With the emergence of intentional proto-human beings a powerful new factor – cultural development – accelerated the process of change on the planet. Cultural change moves at warp speed relative to the gradual processes of biological evolution and the still slower processes of geophysical change. A new phenomenon – human history – entered the scene in which innovation and cultural information, the DNA of evolving societies, drove a cumulative and accelerating process of development. With the advent of historical time came a new type of transition, between the phases of human history that demarcate important transformations in knowledge, technology and the organization of society. Naturally, the course of history is not neatly organized into idealized transitions. Real history is an intricate and irregular process conditioned by specific local factors, serendipity and volition. The historic record may be organized in different ways, with alternative demarcations between important periods. Yet, a long view of the broad contours of the human experience reveals two sweeping macro-transformations – from Stone Age culture to Early Civilization roughly 10,000 years ago, and from Early Civilization to the Modern Era over the last millennium (Fromkin, 1998). The premise of this essay is that a third transition is underway toward what might be called the Planetary Phase of civilization. Historical transitions are complex junctures, which transform the cultural matrix and the relationship of humanity to nature. At critical thresholds, gradual processes of change working across multiple dimensions – technology, consciousness and institutions – reinforce and amplify, leading to a revised structure and dynamics of socio-ecological systems. Change radiates from centers of novelty slowly through the mechanisms of conquest, emulation, and assimilation. Earlier historical eras survive in physically remote and culturally isolated places. Today, an emergent planetary dynamism overlays modern, pre-modern and remnants of Stone Age culture. Novel social organization, the economy, and communications features of these historical eras are shown in Table 1. Many other dimensions could be added, such as changing features of art, science, transportation, values, war and so on. But the schematic of the table at least suggests how various aspects of the socio-economic nexus cohere at different stages in the process of historical evolution. In the transition from one formation to another, each dimensions is transformed. Social organization becomes more extensive, the economy becomes more diversified, and communications technology becomes more powerful. Table 1. Characteristics of Historical Eras Stone Age Early Civilization Modern Era Planetary Phase Organization Tribe/village City-state, kingdom Nation-state Global governance Economy Hunting and Settled Industrial Globalization gathering agriculture system Communications Language Writing Printing Internet Social complexity and spatial connectedness are not only increasing, but are doing so at an increasing pace. Just as historical transitions occur more rapidly than natural evolutionary transitions, historical transitions themselves are accelerating. The duration of successive eras decreases by roughly a factor of ten – the Stone Age lasted roughly 100,000 years, Early Civilization about 10,000 years and the Modern Era some 1,000 years. Curiously, if the transition to a Planetary Phase were to take of the order of 100 years this pattern would persist.